Presentation by Rob Arnott

Key insights from a pioneer. The conclusions that Rob shares will sound familiar to those who follow markets closely, but the presentation highlights several uncomfortable truths that we know yet find hard to embrace in our investment decisions:

A similar dichotomy between what is realistically achievable and what we believe we will achieve was also questioned in a recent blog post by Mebane Faber with an interesting title:

Institutional Investors are Delusional



An outline for the next few posts

Two of my early posts (here and here) were about the path to wealth, emphasizing the importance of saving early and staying invested. My next few posts will focus on two themes.

On one hand, I will explain where wealth fits in the broader context of happiness. Happiness is a term I use loosely to describe a state of being that we aspire to. Everyone’s happiness is a little different, in the same way that we each think of God a little differently. Wealth contributes to happiness in a limited yet significant way.

On the other hand, I will focus on earning. Earning is both the source of saving, and an outcome of one’s work (profession). Since we spend much of our waking hours working, work has profound implications for happiness for reasons that are not wealth-related.

Stay tuned.



This is a blog on finance and investing (see NO FINANCIAL ADVICE disclaimer below). SciPre is short for Science of Prediction.

We can roughly predict the future if we know the present and have studied the past carefully. As someone said: History does not repeat, but it rhymes. It has long been a quest of mine to understand happiness, the importance of wealth as it applies to happiness, wealth creation, the role of financial markets in wealth creation, and ultimately understanding human behavior well enough to anticipate markets.

I hope you will enjoy reading, and I welcome your comments.

NO FINANCIAL ADVICE – The information on this forum is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind. This information does NOT constitute financial or investment advice. The information is general in nature, and is not specific to the reader. YOU SHOULD NOT MAKE ANY DECISION, FINANCIAL, INVESTMENTS, TRADING OR OTHERWISE, BASED ON ANY OF THE INFORMATION PRESENTED ON THIS FORUM WITHOUT UNDERTAKING INDEPENDENT DUE DILIGENCE AND CONSULTATION WITH A PROFESSIONAL BROKER OR COMPETENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR.